OPEC debates oil output boost amid Russian isolation

Major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia hold talks Thursday on whether to adjust output, hard on the heels of an EU ban on Russian oil imports.

Analysts had expected OPEC+ producers to likely stick to their policy of only increasing output modestly, as they have done since May 2021, reports AFP.

However, a Wall Street Journal report on Monday that said OPEC was considering suspending Russia from the output deal has sown doubts.

“Such a move would effectively bring a premature end to the group’s supply agreement and pave the way for an unrestricted increase in output,” Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Energy, said.

The 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, chaired by Saudi Arabia, and their 10 partners, led by Russia, drastically slashed output in 2020 as demand slumped because of the coronavirus pandemic and worldwide lockdowns.

They have increased output modestly to the tune of around 400,000 barrels per day each month since last year, resisting pressure by top consumers, including the United States, to open the taps wider.

The expectation was that output would increase by another 432,000 barrels per day in July.

“So far, the market has been assuming that OPEC+ would raise the planned production volume… Russia is still being included in this,” analyst Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank said.

Talks by videoconference begin at the technical level at 1200 GMT at OPEC headquarters in Vienna, before moving into a plenary session.